NFL Week 10 Preview: It’s Getting Nervy

By Alex Lauzon from the “Course of Life” podcast

As we creep towards playoff conversations in NFL circles we’re also seeing teams in spots they haven’t been in a long time, like the struggling Patriots or the surprisingly good Saints and Browns. The parody of the NFL yet again finds itself on full display, making forecasting games exponentially harder. Point spreads are tightening, the knowledge base of the 32 NFL franchises is increasing week by week and the unpredictability is what drives us back again and again. Since we’re all part of the madness, what better to get involved than our weekly NFL contests to win some money along the way?

Week Nine’s games were highlighted by the first-ever NFL Germany game - a surprisingly gritty game that featured more offense than defense and a Chiefs win. Now as we peer head to Week 10 it’s week two of NFL Germany play, week one of the Josh Dobbs era in Minnesota, and a big week overall in the AFC North on tap:

Games of the Week

Colts vs Patriots (+2) - 9:30 am ET - How in the world do my Patriots get off the mat at this point? They are beaten down, confused, and inept in the biggest moments, so will a trio halfway around the world bring a breath of fresh air? That’s the only hope as they play a Colts team that plays tough and grabbed their fourth win of the season Sunday.

Saints @ Vikings (+2.5) - 1 pm ET - Nobody predicted these two teams at above .500 at the halfway pole, but here we are. Josh Dobbs is the unlikely hero QB of the moment for the Vikings, while Derek Carr keeps the train on the tracks for New Orleans. Now that I type this out it reads like a slug of a game won in trenches, and not with many points. These QBs should regress for a week.

Texans @ Bengals (-7) - 1 pm ET - C.J Stroud and Joe Burrow may be the most entertaining QBs in the AFC as of late and now they go head to head. Stroud’s rookie campaign has been thoroughly impressive, and now he goes up against a Bengals team I’m very high on right now. This figures to be a highlight-packed game to start off Sunday.

49ers @ Jaguars (+3) - 1 pm ET - Despite the 49ers being a bit shaky and traveling all the way east for an early start, they're still favored here and it tells me Vegas loves the matchup on the field here for San Fran. The Jags are right where they would like to be at 6-2 but the defense will have its hands full with the 49ers weapons all around.

Browns @ Ravens (-6) - 1 pm ET - It’s worth noting that last week’s early line on this game was Ravens -3, so last week’s blowout win by Baltimore elevated their prestige level and pushed this spread up. Traditionally Lamar Jackson would steamroll here, and they did so in the first matchup 28-3—slam dunk spot for Ravens backers.

Fishy Lines to Watch

Lions @ Chargers (+2) - 4:05 pm ET - At minimum, I’m pumped we have a good Lions team to watch on Turkey Day. Before then, they’ve got the Chargers off of a Monday Night Football win and the lowly Bears ahead. This line screams for you to bet the Chargers at home, almost as if you’re being baited into the losing side. I see this line moving toward a pick'em as the week progresses.  

Giants @ Cowboys (-16) - 4:25 pm ET - Holy point spread…we have our biggest line of the 2023 season thus far in this NFC East matchup. The Giants are truly inept and now know that Daniel Jones’ season is over. Can Tyrod Taylor keep the GMen within two scores at Jerryworld? Doubtful but it’s a tempting side to back with so many points on hand.

The Primetime Pick

Broncos @ Bills (-7.5) - 8:15 pm ET (Monday) - Two teams in different spots arrive at this MNF matchup. For Buffalo, it’s back-to-back night games after losing in Cincy, while the Broncos had a nice 15-day layoff between games to recoup. I get a funny feeling a rested Denver could show well here and keep it competitive for three quarters.

Week 10 Plays To Watch

(13-7 last four weeks)

Saints -2.5 - Josh Dobbs heroics take a week off.

49ers -3 - I'm liking some sketchy road favorites this week!

Lions ML - Imagine if the Lions were 8-2 on Thanksgiving morning?! It could be a thing.

Giants +16 - Always a sucker for big dogs in the NFL.

Broncos +7.5 - These picks make me cringe, which is usually a good thing.

Lock of the Week (3-3 this season)

Ravens -6 - Back to the well for a great matchup at home.