NFL Week 4 Preview
Can Taylor Swift move an NFL game line? We dive in with our Week 4 preview.
By Alex Lauzon from the “Course of Life” podcast
NFL Week 4: The “Get Right” Week
I don’t mean to alarm you, but we’re approaching the first quarter pole of the NFL regular season. I know - time flies like a SpaceX rocket during football season and we’ve got about a month’s worth of games in the bank, and things won’t slow down a hint as we roll towards October and sweater weather. It’s also time for me, us, and you to collectively get right. The unpredictability of the league has been on full display, and last weekend was no exception. We’re in need of a revival for our picks, and thankfully the survivor contest revival is live for this week to help us get right.
If last weekend’s action taught us anything, it’s that spreads can be generally disregarded at the moment. If you can’t believe it, a vast majority of the NFL games played this year have landed nowhere near the actual point spreads. The message is clear - lean into the chaos, find your favorite money line dogs and double down accordingly on your lock - especially if it’s for our Lock of the Week revival contest (more info on that towards the end) which continues with Week 4 play. Let’s get the board:
Games of the Week
Dolphins @ Bills (-2.5) - 1:00 pm ET - This AFC East duel features two offenses that looked amazing last week, simply put. This is also one of those games where the whole world will be on the over and I’ll naturally join the minority in thinking the defenses could be the surprise heroes. Either way, a treat of a matchup to start your Sunday.
Ravens @ Browns (-2.5) - 1:00 pm ET - Despite the underwhelming OT loss to the Colts for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, I’m still not deterred by my original read on the Ravens. This feels like a “get right” week if there ever was one for the birds, who have had great success against the Browns defense in seasons past.
Buccaneers @ Saints (-3) - 1:00 pm ET - Funny how timing works - Saints QB Derek Carr goes down with an injury that should call for Jameis Winston (yes, him) to start against his former team one more time. The game is at the Superdome but nothing else here makes the Saints a lock this week, as Baker Mayfield has shown to be gritty on the road in this early season.
Commanders @ Eagles (-7) - 1:00 pm ET - Sam Howell was untouchable, and then quickly brought back to reality in Sunday's drubbing at the hands of the Buffalo Bills. Now the commanders reset with a tricky road challenge against an Eagles team that remains poised and unblemished on the season. I’m foreseeing that this line creeps up towards double digits before week’s end.
Patriots @ Cowboys (-7) - 4:25 pm ET - Two teams that delivered head-scratching performances on Sunday. The Pats had their ugliest win in years over a lifeless Jets squad, while the Cowboys laid a massive gg on the road against the Cardinals. I am weary as a Patriots fan because this is a prime “get right” spot for the Cowboy to revive their season long hopes and dreams. The main mystery is how the Patriots will score points.
Fishy Lines to Watch
Steelers @ Texans (+3) - 1 pm ET - This perked out at me cause I’ve been betting the Texans as massive underdogs for years…but last week’s effort changed something. I can see the respect glaring through on this line, and it tells me that Vegas has their eyes on C.J. Stroud as he begins to find his way in the league.
Chiefs @ Jets (+9.5) - 8:20 pm ET - With the Jets looking as anemic as they have under Zach Wilson, and the Chiefs looking the way they did on both sides of the ball, you would think the Chiefs would be double digit favorites. The line actually started around 7 late last week, and I’m sure the Taylor Swift drama and fever of the week only ramped up Chiefs kingdom excitement. Yes, I do believe Taylor Swift can move a football line. If she shows on Sunday night in NYC it will be hard to bet the Jets with less than 10 points to spare.
The Primetime Pick
Lions @ Packers (+1) - 8:15 pm ET (Thursday) - The TNF weekend opener features a couple of NFC North teams that are already exceeding September expectations as both the Lions and the Pack are 2-1 and ahead of the eight ball. Now, they do nighttime battle at Lambeau, and this is another big spot for the Lions to pronounce themselves as contenders for the NFC North crown.
Week 4 Plays To Watch
Ravens +2.5 - Baltimore gets right against a team they traditionally feast upon.
Patriots +7 - The lower scoring this game is, the longer the Patriots have a chance to win.
Texans +3 - The coming out party for C.J. Stroud begins officially this weekend!
Dolphins/Bills Under (currently 54.5) - I’ll wait for the public to bet this up on hype alone, and then opportunity could arise for the UNDER to be the wise guys play.
Eagles -7 - Before it shoots up towards 10…
Lock of the Week
The Splash Lock of the Week is live! Join our Survivor Revival Contest, pick the 49ers this week, and get one of your entries refunded if you lose. That's a risk-free shot at the $10K grand prize!
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