Super Bowl Fantasy Tiers Value Picks

It all started five months ago on a Thursday night in Kansas City. Now, those same Chiefs that lost on the opening night of the 2023-24 NFL season will compete in the campaign’s conclusion for the sport’s greatest prize. It’s San Francisco’s job to bookend the season with Chiefs defeats.

Super Bowl LVIII is an opportunity for Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid to make it three titles in five years. The Niners are seeking their sixth championship in their history and first since 1994. Both franchises are familiar with this stage - especially given their meeting in Super Bowl LIV five years ago that went the way of Kansas City - but only one will dance the night away among Las Vegas confetti.

You don’t have to play or coach on either team to join in on the celebrations. You don’t have to be a fan of one of the teams, either. Even better: you don’t even have to care who wins. If you perform well in the Splash NFL $5K Big Game Fantasy Tiers contest, Vegas won’t have anything on you.

Okay, maybe Vegas will have a bit more than nothing on you, but flipping $10 into a cool $750 isn’t a bad night out. All it will take is topping the table with your perfect fantasy picks.

Even if you can’t manage to hit home runs with every selection, there are still meaningful prizes available to those who finish in the top 50 of the contest. Find your way into the top 10, and at least $150 is headed your direction.

This week, the Fantasy Tiers contest consists of one game and two teams. Each tier has only six players to choose from, a big drop from the 10 in previous weeks. That means there will be little variation, relatively, among the entries. To get into a money position, you will have to find the diamond in the rough. You might even need to find more than one diamond in the rough.

That’s where I come in. My job is to help you parse through the haystack and uncover that needle. I have selected one player from each tier as my value picks, taking into consideration only the players who are outside of the top two in projected scoring in their respective tiers.

If you choose to run with all four of the players I’ve outlined, then it would take a miracle for you to win. But one or two of them, coupled with more mainstream options, could set you apart from the competition. 

Tier 1: Rashee Rice

Projected points: 17.27 (3rd in tier)

In his first professional season, Rashee Rice racked up 938 yards, the second-most among Chiefs receivers, and seven touchdown receptions, the best mark on the team. He has grown into his role as Kansas City’s premier receiver as the campaign has gone on, and he has been a valuable target for Mahomes this postseason.

Other than Travis Kelce, Rice is clearly Mahomes’s favorite target. That’s a good thing in general but even more so when the Kansas City offense is opposite of one of the less stellar fantasy defenses in the league. 

The 49ers finished 19th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers in PPR scor the 2023-24 regular season. The 17 receiving touchdowns they provided two white outs was tied for the sixth-most in the league, and the 236 total receptions given up to opponents at the position was the fifth-most.

San Francisco has clamped down harder in the playoffs, but receivers still found some success against it in the Divisional Round and NFC Championship Game. Amon-Ra St. Brown had seven receptions on 11 targets for 87 yards two weeks ago, and Romeo Doubs amassed 83 yards on four catches the week prior. Odds are, one of Kansas City’s wide receivers will put up similar or better numbers. Rice is the most likely candidate.

It’s also relevant to note how much better the Niners have done at restricting tight and success. San Francisco was vulnerable to wide receivers this season, but it held opposing tight ends to just two receiving touchdowns, tied for the fewest in the league. Its 11.0 points per game average against tight ends in PPR scoring was 11th-best in the NFL.

Kelce might perform as well, but stats from throughout the season support choosing Rice rather than the Kansas City tight end.

Tier 2: George Kittle

Projected points: 12.82 (3rd in tier)

My decision to go with George Kittle is based less on the Chiefs being susceptible to tight ends and more about the other options in Tier 2.

Kansas City was one of the tougher teams for tight ends to score fantasy points against in the regular season. In PPR scoring, the team allowed 10.6 points per game to the position, the 10th-fewest in the NFL and just 0.4 points better than its Super Bowl counterpart. In their three playoff games so far, the Chiefs have only let their opponent break 200 passing yards once - the Ravens managed 255, but a mere 31 of them landed in tight end talons.

Those aren’t encouraging facts for Kittle, but there is a massive drop off between him and the other three players listed in the bottom four of this tier in projected points. Would you rather have Kittle or Marques Valdes-Scantling? Kittle or Mecole Hardman? Kittle or Jauan Jennings?

Kittle’s best outing in these playoffs came against Green Bay in the Divisional Round when he collected four receptions on seven targets for 81 receiving yards and a touchdown. In all, he’s racked up six catches, 10 targets, 108 receiving yards, and the one trip to paydirt in his two postseason performances. They’re not earthshaking numbers, but they’re solid for a tight end.

Kittle has been one of the most important parts of the San Francisco offense for years, and if the Niners are to be the ones celebrating after the final whistle, then a quality showing from him has probably occurred. If you want a value pick in Tier 2, I wouldn’t look anywhere else.

Tier 3: Justin Watson

Projected points: 3.35 (3rd in tier)

Given that Richie James and Kadarius Toney have combined for three targets in three playoff games, neither are viable options. That leaves us with Justin Watson and Ray-Ray McCloud.

Choosing McCloud is banking on a punt or kick return touchdown, something he hasn’t done in six seasons as an NFL player and four as a high-volume returner. It doesn’t help that 87.1 percent of Kansas City kicker Harrison Butker’s 2023-24 kickoffs concluded in touchbacks. Also, Purdy targeted him once in the Divisional Round and hasn’t since.

Based on likelihood, Watson is the easy under-the-radar alternative to the projected top two. He was the third-most targeted player for the Chiefs in the regular season (53), which is already light years more than his aforementioned Tier 3 competitors can say. He has not seen a ton of action in the postseason, though. Noah Gray seems to have usurped him, and if you would rather go with the hotter hand, then you should pick the player with the most projected points in Tier 3. 

But if you want to go for a player that will likely have fewer supporters, then take the gamble that it will be Watson jubilantly jackhammering the ball into the earth, not Gray. If that were to be the case - and it’s not unreasonable that it would be - then that could be a real difference maker on the leaderboard.

Naturally, the risk could collapse. Gray outpaced Watson by one in regular season receptions (28 to 27), and his nine targets since the start of the playoffs nearly doubles Watson’s five. Gray saw at least a 14 percent higher snap count than Watson in the Divisional Round and AFC Championship Game as well. Odds are, they won’t both come away with touchdowns on Sunday. If you want the riskier play with the goal of setting yourself aside from the pack, then consider Watson.

Tier 4: Charlie Woerner

Projected points: 0.22 (5th in tier)

It is slim pickings in Tier 4. You are hoping your player can give you something, anything, to make their existence worthwhile. Some of these players have spent playoff games without experiencing a single snap. If you have strong feelings about any of these players exploding into stardom this Sunday, then I’m afraid you may have a disappointing night.

But random players score touchdowns all the time, and that’s what you need here. Realistically, a two-yard touchdown run or a five-yard end zone reception is the goal. The truth is, these guys barely even play. For any of the Tier 4 sleepers to make a serious impact in the Super Bowl, it might require an injury.

Charlie Woerner featured in 16 percent of San Francisco’s plays against the Packers and 17 percent of the snaps versus the Lions. He recorded neither a reception nor target in either outing, but at least he was on the field. That’s more than can be said for much of Tier 4.

Jordan Mason has experienced one snap in the 2024 NFL Playoffs. The only way he sees any action is through extraneous circumstances excusing Christian McCaffrey or Elijah Mitchell from the field. Excluding the meaningless regular season finale against the Chargers that saw the Chiefs delve into their depth, La’Mical Perine had one carry and one target across the entire season. A goose egg awaits those who dare.

Blake Bell has played in at least 20 percent of his team’s snaps in each of its playoff games this winter. In that regard, he has Woerner beat. The thing is, Bell is also the clear fourth tight end option for the Chiefs. It’s not as though Kansas City is working him into the offense. Bell has just as many targets and receptions as Woerner does in this postseason: zero, and Bell has one more game to get one, too.

Woerner is one accident away from owning the most responsibility of any San Francisco tight end. It would take something monumental to remove Kittle from this game. I am not predicting an injury. But I am acknowledging that Woerner has the shortest climb to prime real estate among any of the possible sleepers sequestered in this section. That cannot be ignored.

Not only would Woerner benefit if Kittle went down, but second-string tight ends aren’t strangers to touchdowns. Is he likely to score? No. But I give him better odds than players who have multiple bodies ahead of them.

In Fantasy Tiers, you make value picks understanding the risk and seeking the reward. I would expect everyone and their mother to throw their way behind Elijah Mitchell in this tier. Woerner will not be a popular pick. Every advantage counts, no matter the size.