What the Pick Data Says About Week 1

The 53-man rosters are set, the depth charts are finalized, the contracts and extensions are (mostly) finalized, and it’s time to play some football. The 2024 NFL season kicks off tomorrow, and Splash Sports users are locking in their picks for Week 1. Let’s take a look at where they’re leaning in Survivor and Pick’Em contests. 

The Downfall of the New England Patriots

Well, it was fun while it lasted New England fans. The downfall of the New England Patriots is here, and Survivor pickers on Splash agree. 33% of users are backing the Bengals in Week 1 to beat the Patriots, a whopping 20% more than the next most-used team, the Seahawks. 

If you’re not using the Bengals this week, there are plenty more opportunities to fade the Pats. They have the most difficult schedule in the entire NFL this season, making them a team to watch as Survivor contests progress. Who knows how long Jacoby Brissett will last as QB1, but with their offensive line struggles and lack of weapons on offense, it’s probably a smart move to save Drake Maye until they can give him some OL protection in next year’s draft. 

America’s Team

One of the more intriguing matchups in the Week 1 slate is the Cowboys-Browns matchup. The Browns come in as -2.5 favorites on their home turf, the newly-named Huntington Bank Field, but Splash pickers aren’t buying the hype. And frankly, if you watched Deshaun Watson at all last season, we don’t blame them. 58% of Splash pickers are taking the Cowboys to cover that 2.5-point spread on the road in Pick’Em contests. A freshly signed CeeDee Lamb, one of the best defenses in the NFL, and an old, but steady ground attack with Rico Dowdle, Zeke Elliot, and Dalvin Cook are enough for Splash pickers to fade Cleveland at home. 

The 42% of pickers on the Browns are likely confident in Cleveland’s equally strong defense and re-vamped offensive weapons. Jerry Jeudy struggled in Denver with some questionable QB play for his entire career, but he’s looking for a new home with an upgrade at QB (we know Watson isn’t great, but seriously, anything is an upgrade to what Jeudy played with in Denver) and should provide a nice complement to WR1 Amari Cooper. 

In Caleb We Trust?

Caleb Williams is one of the most hyped-up rookie QBs in recent memory, and Bears fans are already anointing him as the savior of the franchise. No pressure! Splash Survivor pickers are putting their faith in the rookie for Week 1, with a solid 5% of users taking the Bears to win their Week 1 matchup with the Titans.

If you’re thinking of taking the Bears, tread carefully. Rookie quarterbacks are a shocking 0-7-1 (thank Kyler Murray for the ever-exciting tie) in their Week 1 starts over the past five seasons. Guys like Trevor Lawrence, Anthony Richardson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Tua Tagovailoa weren’t able to secure Week 1 victories in their first start, but that’s not deterring some Splash pickers. 

Super Bowl Bump

The Chiefs dynasty added another ring to their collection last season, and Splash pickers are hoping they start off their 2024-25 campaign strong. In one of the most anticipated matchups of Week 1, a significant 64% of users are taking the Chiefs to cover -2.5 against the Ravens in Pick’Em contests.

Mahomes and the Chiefs have had Lamar Jackson’s number in their past matchups. Mahomes is 3-1 in the regular season against Lamar, and 1-0 in the playoffs. Mahomes also has an impressive 5-1 record in Week 1 through his career. Combine that with a home game at Arrowhead Stadium with fans still on a Super Bowl high, and you can see why Splash pickers are backing the Chiefs in Week 1. 

Get Your Picks In

The NFL season kicks off tomorrow, but there’s still plenty of time to make contest entries on Splash Sports and compete for cash all season long. Check out our $1M Guaranteed Survivor contest, our $250K ATS Pick 5, and our $100K Confidence Pick All to compete for serious cash. Happy picking.