Avoid These MLB QuickPicks Mistakes

Baseball projections are some of the most nuanced in QuickPicks. Unlike football or basketball, MLB stats swing on tiny margins. One bad pitch, one walk, or one bloop single could be the difference in your contests.That volatility means users often fall into the same traps when making picks.

We reviewed the last 7 days of QuickPicks data to find where users went wrong. Here are the biggest mistakes we saw, and how to avoid them moving forward.

Chasing Strikeouts From the Wrong Arms

Strikeouts are one of the most popular MLB projections, but that doesn’t mean they’re reliable. Last week, users leaned heavily on pitchers like Kodai Senga and Landon Knack to go more on strikeouts. Combined, they were picked over 135 times, and both of them hit 0 percent of the time.

The problem? Users often chase upside without factoring in matchup data. Just because a guy has a strikeout-heavy profile doesn’t mean the spot is right.

Trusting Total Bases in the Wrong Matchups

Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani were two of the most-picked hitters to go more on total bases. Both sat near a 50 percent hit rate, which is fine in a vacuum, but not ideal when you need multiple legs to hit.

Total bases projections are especially vulnerable to cold streaks, tough pitching matchups, and ballpark factors. If you’re picking more without checking who they’re facing or how they’ve looked over the last week, you’re guessing.

Underestimating How Often “Less” Hits on Volume Stats

Users still overwhelmingly lean toward the more side on counting stats like strikeouts and total bases. But many of last week’s most accurate picks came from the less side, especially on strikeouts. For example, less picks on fringe pitchers hit at much higher rates than expected.

In QuickPicks, where you’re playing against other users, being early to a less pick can be a major advantage. When the crowd leans more, less becomes more valuable, not just for accuracy, but for leverage.

Picking Off Name Recognition, Not Numbers

Names like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani draw picks by default, especially on the more side. But when you look at hit rates, they were coin flips at best. Users expect big names to perform every night, even though baseball just doesn’t work that way.

If you want to win consistently, you have to dig deeper. Look at splits. Check recent trends. Don’t just ride the face of the league and expect to cash.

The Bottom Line

MLB projections are full of opportunities, but also full of traps. Over the last week, users leaned hard on big names and popular projection types — and paid the price.

To avoid these mistakes, remember:

• Always factor in matchup context

• Don't be afraid to pick 'less' - especially when the public usually favors 'more'.

• Don’t let star power override the data

We’ll keep tracking the trends and showing you what’s working and what isn’t so you can stay one step ahead in QuickPicks.