Splash Bowl Bonanza Picks: The Separation Slate

To pick this year’s big bowl games and help you compete for $50K in the Splash Bowl Pick X Bonanza, let’s study each matchup using three common data points: First Downs (how well each team’s offense moves the chains), Turnover Differential (how well each team holds onto and takes away the ball), and Opponent Red Zone Scoring % (how well each defends against points on its own end of the field).

Arizona Bowl - Toledo vs Wyoming

The 11-2 Rockets will put their offensive show against the 8-4 Cowboys in a game that is likely to hinge on Toledo’s ability to consistently move the ball on a stingy and often opportunistic Wyoming defense.

Toledo’s offense is the more productive of the squads by a fair margin - 52 first downs - but Wyoming’s turnover differential is much better. On the other hand, the Rockets are a bit better of a defense in the red zone and have more ‘quick strike’ ability when they have the ball. Should be a good game - Pick Toledo.

Peach Bowl - Ole Miss vs Penn State

Ole Miss and Penn State will bring their identical 10-2 records to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in a game that features two quality offenses and one very special defense in the form of the 2023 Nittany Lions.

Ole Miss is a fun, active team to watch on offense where they have a number of playmakers throughout the skill position to help keep the chains moving. Penn State is less glamorous but about as productive moving the sticks. Both of these teams are good at winning the turnover battle, but PSU is exceptional. Weirdly, neither team’s red zone defense is very good, Close one here - Pick Ole Miss.

Citrus Bowl - Iowa vs Tennessee

The 10-3 Hawkeyes will test their unique brand of football against what will be a heavily favored 8-4 Volunteers squad on New Year's Day. On paper, this seems like a lop-sided matchup.

Iowa has the second fewest offensive first downs in the nation; by comparison, Tennessee converts a first down about 50% more often on offense, while also maintaining a better turnover differential. No surprise, Iowa’s defense is better at stiffening in the red zone. This was a weird game to make - Pick Tennessee.

Orange Bowl - Florida State vs Georgia

The team that was #1 most of the season, the 12-1 Georgia Bulldogs, squares off against the team that got hosed out of a CFP berth, the 13-0 Florida State Seminoles, in what will be a closely watched game.

Florida State has weapons but the Seminoles are not the offensive juggernaut that the Bulldogs present on offense, with FSU producing first downs at a rate of four for every five Georgia converts. FSU is however much stronger on turnovers (+12) versus the suspect Bulldogs (-1). Georgia’s red zone defense is also substantially below average and almost 15% worse than FSU. Smells like upset - Pick Florida State.

Music City Bowl - Auburn vs Maryland

6-6 Auburn limps into this bowl game against 7-5 Maryland having lost four of their last seven, three to ranked teams. Maryland, meanwhile, will try to build on its five game win streak to end the regular season.

Neither team are offensive powerhouses but Maryland moves the chains more consistently (258 first downs to 221). Likewise, neither team makes much of an impact through turnover differential. The difference in this may just be in red zone defense, where Auburn has the season edge. It’s not enough - Pick Maryland.

ReliaQuest Bowl - Wisconsin vs LSU

The 7-5 Badgers will challenge the 9-3 Tigers in the ReliaQuest Bowl at Raymond James Stadium. Wisconsin will try to build on their 4-1 run to end the season, while LSU seeks to bounce back from a tough loss to FSU.

LSU is the far more productive offense of the two teams with about 70 more first downs on the season. LSU also has the superior turnover differential margin (+6). Neither team is strong in the red zone on defense; LSU allows points more often, but Wisconsin allows many more scoring opportunities. Blowout I think - Pick LSU.

Fiesta Bowl - Oregon vs Liberty

13-0 Liberty will get the chance to test their perfect season against the high flying 12-1 Ducks on New Year's Day in what sets up as an offensive showdown between two very efficient teams.

Oregon has more first downs than anyone in the country; Liberty is #2 in that category. The two teams also share an identical +9 turnover differential. Liberty is slightly more effective in red zone defense, but the Ducks have shown the ability to hang close in the fourth quarter. Fun game to watch - Pick Oregon.