Stop Picking the Bengals This Season

Do not pick the Bengals in any NFL Survivor contest, and be very careful choosing them in Pick X or any other game, for the foreseeable future.

The Bengals have appeared in each of the last two AFC Championship Games and came up just three points shy of the franchise’s first championship in Super Bowl LVI. With Joe Burrow under center, Ja’Marr Chase catching his passes, and Sam Hubbard terrorizing opposing backfields, Cincinnati rose to become one of the premier contenders in the NFL, let alone the AFC.

Those expectations carried into 2023, but the same level of success hasn’t. The Bengals sit at 1-3, already the unhappy owners of two defeats to divisional foes. They were run out of the building the most recent time they took the field – a 27-3 road beating at the hands of the Titans – and what was once so promising now seems to be unraveling.

Life can come at you fast in the NFL. As quickly as the Bengals rose to prominence, they sunk back down to the basement.

Burrow’s Injury

Burrow is playing like a shell of his former self. Battling through an already-reaggravated right calf injury that has noticeably impacted his mobility in the pocket and ability to step into throws, the quarterback has not been the same player the world watched carry the Bengals to the AFC Championship Game in 2021 and 2022.

The QB admitted that he played through the calf strain in the Bengals’ Week 3 win over the Rams, stating after the game that righting his team’s ship was his motivation to continue through the pain.

“There is risk to go out there and potentially reinjure it,” Burrow told the media on Sept. 26. “But there’s also the risk to not go out there and be 0-3. So, I wanted to be out there for my guys, and I was confident that I would be able to do what I needed to get the win.”

This all began on the second day of training camp in late July when Burrow needed to be carted off the field from practice. He did not play in any of Cincinnati’s preseason games but reappeared for Week 1 against the Browns, supposedly ready to go. The rust, coupled with the injury itself, have not been pleasant for Burrow’s performances.

I don’t know if the Bengals would be better with Jake Browning or AJ McCarron receiving the snaps. But at this point, the choice of a Burrow with one functioning calf isn’t all that appetizing on its own accord, especially when you consider the possible long-term damage that could be done to the quarterback that the franchise just locked down until 2030 for the cool price of $275 million. No option is enticing, and none of them should make you want to put any faith in the Bengals any time soon.

The Rest of the Offense

It’s not all about Burrow’s leg.

The Cincinnati shot caller was the sixth-most sacked quarterback in the league last season, an improvement from when he was the NFL’s most sacked quarterback in 2021. The offensive line has done a better job of keeping him from hitting the deck behind the line in 2023, but there have still been clear issues with the unit. A wide receiving core that was always open when needed the last two seasons now can’t seem to get enough separation. And while the ground game was never the main avenue the Bengals offense used to gain yards the last few years, they’ve even taken a step back there, too, currently averaging the second-fewest rushing yards per game in the league at 70.0.

Of course, Burrow has been central to everything Cincinnati’s offense has done since it elevated to become one of the NFL’s best in recent years, and his uncharacteristically poor play and physical restrictions put everyone else in a much worse position to succeed. But the Bengals don’t have one of the worst offenses in pro football right now solely because of Burrow’s calf. Cincinnati is the only team in the league yet to break the 1,000-mark in offensive yards gained. You can’t convince me that only one injury-limited person is responsible for that.

Opposing Defensive Schemes

It used to be that a wide receiver lineup of Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd was enough to scare opposing defenses from playing man or sending too much on the blitz for fear of being quickly and surgically picked apart. That’s not how defenses are approaching the Bengals anymore now that there is virtually zero deep ball threat – Burrow’s yards per attempt is 4.8 in 2023, a steep drop from 7.4 in 2022 and 8.9 in 2021 – and their quarterback isn’t too elusive in the pocket. That was especially evident last weekend in Nashville.

The Titans dared Burrow and his receivers to beat them one-on-one on many occasions, something the Bengals would have licked their chops at in previous seasons. But on Sunday, it meant containing the visitoring challengers to a measly 165 yards through the air and just three points on the scoreboard.

Right now, the Cincinnati offense is so limited that opposing defenses know they don’t have to worry too much about a ball over the top. They can press up on the receivers, dial up pressure, and stay in man-to-man coverage. We’ve seen the results of that evolution over the course of the last month, and they don’t bode well for the Bengals.

The team’s defense isn’t perfect either, but it doesn’t stand much of a chance when its companion offense can’t push the pigskin down the field. Even the best defenses – which Cincinnati does not have – need time to rest to be at their best. When you lose the time of possession battle by about 10 minutes almost every week, you are setting up the other side of the ball to fail. The offense is at the root of Cincinnati’s many problems.

Possible Locker Room Dysfunction

I’m not in the Bengals locker room, and I don’t personally know anyone in there. I don’t know what goes on behind closed doors.

But when your star wide receiver is publicly displaying disapproval over your quarterback’s decision to play through an injury and telling media that he’s “always f****** open” after a 24-point loss, there is some reasonable cause for concern.

The NFL is a pressure cooker, and being 1-3 is not a nice place to be. These athletes have trained for years on end for these moments and gone through countless intense and rigorous weed-out processes to reach this pinnacle – it’s not the same world as what most of us experience in our workplace environments, and that means different rules of engagement. This disagreement could be a blip that means nothing among otherwise rock-solid relationships. Losing finds a way to meddle, though.

Don’t Pick the Bengals

I know, they have Joe Burrow, and they have been really good the last couple of seasons. I know, they play the Cardinals this week, and the Cardinals were really terrible last season. But don’t pick the Bengals if you don’t have to.

Sure, Cincinnati might win its Week 5 contest with Arizona; the Cardinals are doing better than many may have expected before the opening kickoff, but we’re not talking about a candidate for February football here. But there is no reason to needlessly put any trust in Cincinnati. You can’t view the 2023 Bengals as if they’re the 2021 or 2022 Bengals; all evidence points to the contrary. The odds are not in favor of Cincinnati to make the playoffs at this point, and we’re likely in the midst of a gap year in Burrow’s career for championship contention. Forget what you knew about the Bengals before: they are not here right now.

They could return, and with a vengeance. When healthy, Burrow has proven himself to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. If his insistence on seeing the field while physically fragile doesn’t permanently damage his body and ability, he will be back to the Joe we know, probably next season after spending months recovering without two-ton linemen driving him into the dirt on a loop. The major players in the AFC should not assume their dealings with the Bengals are over forever. But it’s not 2024 yet, and you can’t win NFL Survivor contests one year in advance.

Avoid the Bengals in NFL Survivor or any other game that doesn’t require you to touch them. Teach your brain to treat them more like the Bengals of old than the Bengals of new, and your Sundays will be much more enjoyable for the rest of the season.