What the Pick Data Says About the Super Bowl

Pick data via RunYourPool, a Splash Inc. brand.

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Four years ago, the Chiefs and Niners sparred in South Florida to earn the title of Super Bowl LIV champion. This Sunday, the same two will rendezvous in Las Vegas with ownership rights of the Super Bowl LVII rings on the line.

All season long, Splash users have shared their feelings on how every NFL outing will unfold before the teams take the field. All season long, I have combed through the entire portfolio of picks from across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports, then organized the information into something digestible. 

The goal has been to keep the Splash public abreast. If that knowledge can help our users make winning decisions in their Splash contests and beyond, then something is going right. And if it doesn’t, well, take it up with your fellow Splashers - this messenger prefers to remain intact.

Splash pickers didn’t think it would be Kansas City in this position prior to its kickoff with Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game, but the Chiefs are once again in the ultimate contest. Splash users were conflicted between San Francisco and Detroit in the NFC title tussle, but the slim preference for the 49ers proved correct.

As we have progressed into the playoffs, I have added in my own keys and picks for each of the contests. I matched Splash users and their 1-1 record from Championship Weekend, also expecting more from the Ravens while accurately foreseeing San Francisco’s good fortune.

Five months of football will culminate in a championship celebration that only one of the two candidates will enjoy. Let’s see if the Splash masses - and I - can correctly predict how the season’s finale will finish.

AFC No. 3 Kansas City vs NFC No. 1 San Francisco

Two weeks ago, Kansas City shut down the Baltimore offense, holding the Ravens rushing attack to 81 yards and getting to Lamar Jackson behind the line of scrimmage on four occasions. Two big turnovers deep in Kansas City territory buried the Ravens for good. Patrick Mahomes minimized mistakes, and it all combined to be enough for the Chiefs to achieve their fourth AFC crown in five tries, 17-10, on the conference’s No. 1 seed’s soil.

For the fifth time in six seasons, the 49ers showcased in the NFC Championship Game. In this appearance, their task was to avoid losing one game shy of the Super Bowl the third time in a row. It required a 17-point second half comeback, which included a miraculous 51-yard completion to Brandon Aiyuk courtesy of Kindle Vildor’s helmet that set up the first touchdown of the recovery. In the end, San Francisco punched its ticket to the franchise’s eighth Super Bowl and Detroit continued its infinite absence from the big one, 34-31.

The NFC representative has been declared the favorite, but not by much. Just 1.5 points elevate San Francisco above Kansas City in bookmakers’ minds. In Splash users’ minds, it’s the Chiefs that possess preference; 59 percent of Splash pickers against the spread called for Kansas City to outkick official expectations. With a line this thin, it’s reasonable to take picks against the spread literally - the Splash public forecasts that the league will experience its first back-to-back champion since the Patriots in 2004 and 2005.

It’s really hard to argue with how the Chiefs have played in these playoffs. In a supposed down year, Kansas City began its journey and the Wild Card Round and completed the rest of its conference conquest on the road against the top-two seeds to reach the same place it has for 80 percent of the half-decade.

The Chiefs have done things in this postseason that they didn’t in the four months of the regular season.

Middling at stopping the run, with an average of 113.2 rushing yards allowed per outing? Shut down two of the most-prolific ground attacks in the league, holding the Dolphins almost 60 yards below their regular season average per game, then outdid themselves by restricting the Ravens - the NFL’s leader in rushing yards (156.5) - to more than 75 yards under their standard output.

Thin receiver room with statistically above-average passing efficiency? Complete 73.9 and 76.9 percent of passing attempts in two-straight showings in hostile environments, plus enjoy the playoff breakout of a rookie phenom capable of carrying the whole wideout core on his shoulders.

Struggle with turning the ball over and forcing takeaways, equating to a -11 turnover differential that matched the likes of the four-win Patriots?  Commit two turnovers in three playoff games, despite facing three of the top eight takeaway artists in the NFL. Also, force four turnovers across those contests, more than 23 percent of the regular season total spanning 17 shindigs.

The 49ers have a great team. They have been dominant almost the whole way through. Brock Purdy takes excellent care of the ball, they are absolutely loaded with weapons for him to utilize, and their secondary is ruthless. According to regular season Kansas City, that bodes for a bad matchup. Can playoff Kansas City flip the script on its weaknesses like it has in the face of another member of this season’s elite?

My Pick: Kansas City 27, San Francisco 23

Unfortunately for San Francisco, I think this Kansas City squad might just be a buzz saw that no one can hack. The Chiefs are the modern machine of the NFL, and with how they’re playing right now, you could put King Kong on the opposite sideline and I wouldn’t bet against them. 

But it won’t be easy. The Niners will be in it until the end. I figure that the final five minutes will decide who wears the ring in Vegas. In that scenario, give me Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

If the Chiefs had not run the gauntlet in the way they did, and if the 49ers had any other AFC option in their way, I would have thrown my support behind San Francisco. I love Purdy’s efficiency, I think Christian McCaffrey should be NFL MVP, and I believe that the Niners are the all-around best team in pro football.

But the better team doesn’t always win. Sometimes, the better team meets a strong team with something that can’t be quantified. 

These Chiefs smell undeniable. It’s not the matchup analysis rooted in statistics that I generally gravitate toward and you may have come to expect, but it’s the only way it can be put.

The new overlord is here, folks. Time to accept it.