Survivor Clean Slate Week 5: There’s $50K on the Line

You didn’t survive this week. You made the wrong call, and now you’re wallowing in your poor choices. You could have picked Splash’s Lock of the Week, but you didn’t. Sadness.

Except there’s 50 racks on the line in the NFL $50K Big Blue Splash Survivor Revival Contest. Sure, let the shame wash over you for a moment – you probably deserve it – but don’t let your head hang for long. Survive the longest in this contest from Week 5 and on, and you’ll be $50,000 richer (until the IRS gets involved – not much we can do about that, sorry).

So, how should you approach your return in Week 5? Depending on the sort of survivor player you are, you will have a different mindset entering into this decision. Maybe you’re someone who prefers to play it on the safer side, opting for the biggest favorites and worrying about the future when you get there. Perhaps you lean toward planning your moves out, looking for value picks along the way to save the best in show for when you need them most. I want to cover the gambit so everyone, no matter their strategy or their status in their survivor contest, can gain some insight to help with their choice this week.

But before we can look ahead, we must look back and acknowledge the casualties suffered in Week 4 that brought us to this point.

In Memoriam

This week was mostly close calls for the teams that garnered the most attention in Splash Survivor contests. The Eagles needed overtime to get by the Commanders, but they did enough for the 17.23 percent of entries that picked them to stay in their games. The Chiefs separated themselves from the Jets by only a field goal, a relief to 17.44 percent of Splash Survivor entries from Week 4. The Chargers and Vikings, who had about 10 percent of entries between them, earned victory by one possession but earned victory nonetheless.

The longest loss of entries came from the Steelers, who had their clocks cleaned in Houston by a Texans team that has surprised many to start this season. That outcome ripped up 3.01 percent of entries. Cincinnati was the next-worst offender with 1.10 percent of entries banking on the Bengals to figure it out in Tennessee, which they absolutely did not.

But in all, Week 4 was relatively peaceful – the bloodshed was nothing like in Week 3. Let’s see what might happen in Week 5…

If You Want Guaranteed Safety…

Go for the Dolphins over the Giants. Miami is Splash’s Week 5 Lock of the Week, meaning new survivor revival players making their first picks of the $50K Revival contest that choose the Dolphins as their team this week will get their money back if the ‘Phins flop (one entry per user). So, if you fit that criteria and want as little risk as possible to start the contest, then it should be an easy decision.

Miami is coming off of a crushing defeat at the hands of the Bills, a polar opposite experience to Week 3 when the Dolphins eviscerated the Broncos with 70 points. But with the Giants coming to Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday, we love the odds that the home team will come away with the bounce-back triumph.

Comparing Buffalo and New York on the football field is like comparing the cities they represent – we’re talking about two different realms here. The Broncos and Giants are much more similar counterparts, with defenses that make me believe I could consider a career as a linebacker. What Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and De’Von Achane have to put up with this weekend won’t be anything like the last.

The Dolphins are going to win this Sunday. But even if they don’t, you can get your money back if you pick them. Even if you don’t qualify for the Lock of the Week offer, you can still go into Week 5 with the ‘Phins feeling confident that you will survive on to Week 6 unscathed.

If You Want the Week’s Next-Biggest Favorite…

The Dolphins are favored by 11 points over the Giants, the largest line of the NFL’s Week 5 action. But maybe you don’t want to go for Miami – you want to save Mike McDaniel’s team for later in the campaign, or you really believe in the hapless, 1-3 Giants for some strange reason. Whatever your prerogative is, you’re looking for a different favorite to back.

If that’s the case for you, then you should consider going for the Lions over the Panthers. Detroit is a nine-point favorite in its home affair with Carolina, the next-biggest line in the league this week, and ESPN’s FPI metric gives the Lions a 77.3 percent chance to add one to their win column this Sunday.

The Lions enter this contest as winners of their last two, overcoming the Packers in Green Bay in their last outing, 34-20. In that game, Detroit held its divisional rival to 27 total rushing yards and an average of 2.3 yards per carry. No team has been able to run for more than 90 yards against this Lions defense, with that list of challengers including the Chiefs, Seahawks, Falcons, and Packers thus far. It’s impressive enough to allow a league-leading 65.3 yards per game on the ground; it’s even more impressive when those are the teams you’ve done it against. The Panthers, who don’t have an especially potent rush attack to begin with, can forget about running the ball at Ford Field.

Meanwhile, the Panthers have limped to an 0-4 start and are one of two remaining winless outfits in the NFL. Not much has gone right for Carolina so far in 2023, with No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young very much looking like a rookie and the defense giving up the sixth-most rushing yards in the league (545). Let’s be real: the Panthers are going to lose a lot of games this year. You know it, I know it, and they know it, too.

In one corner, you have what looks to be a playoff team and possible contender in the NFC, and in the other, one of the worst teams in the NFL. And the game is in Detroit. The Lions are a solid survivor bet in Week 5.

If You Want a Value Pick…

Consider the Commanders over the Bears.

Washington is the third-biggest favorite of the week, and the horrific nature of the 2023 Bears is well-known among NFL watchers. I’m not giving you a top secret pick here. But the Commanders look like they could be a playoff bubble team when push comes to shove – there will be plenty of weeks down the line where you won’t want to touch them. If you want to save teams like the Chiefs, Eagles, Lions, Dolphins, and Bills for future use, then now would be a good time to go with Washington.

For as much as Justin Fields’s struggles have been publicized, he’s been given little help from his defense, which has been one of the worst in the league at putting pressure on the opposing quarterback. That’s helped Chicago create one of the leakiest secondaries in the NFL, giving up the league’s fourth-most passing yards per game (267.8).

The Commanders have their flaws. Their defense has given up the fourth-most points per game of any in the league (30.0), and quarterback Sam Howell has a lot of growing up left to do. But they have their positives, too, like being efficient in their ground attack and having players like Emmanuel Forbes (five pass deflections and one interception) and Kamren Curl (37 tackles and three tackles for loss) on the defensive side of the ball. Is Chicago good enough to exploit those weaknesses without succumbing to the strengths this Thursday?

The Broncos are unequivocally horrendous on defense. They might as well not even be there. Fields had his best day of the season against them, tossing around for four touchdowns and 335 yards while completing 28 of his 35 pass attempts. Khalil Herbert dashed for 103 yards to boot. Still, the Bears lost. They gave up 24 unanswered points in the game’s final 16 minutes to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, 31-28, with a Fields fumble-turned-touchdown tying the score at 28 and a Fields interception later clinching the day’s result.

This week on the road won’t be any easier than last for the Bears, and they still couldn’t get the job done at Soldier Field. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one is relatively close – the Commanders have played up and down to their competition for the better part this season, so you can expect to sweat it out through an ugly one if Washington is your pick this week. But we’ve seen the Commanders be clutch already at points this season, while the Bears have provided almost nothing but dismay, especially when it matters most. In 2023, it seems that going against Chicago will generally be a winning proposition, so supporting their opponent could be a good way to find your value pick for your Splash contest in Week 5.