2024 Open Championship Preview: Correlated Courses, Tiers Suggestions, and One & Done Picks

The 2024 major championship season is wrapping up this week at Royal Troon, host of The 152nd Open. 

When golfers speak on legacy, so much of that is wrapped up in performance in the majors. Let’s see who can add a stamp to their legacy this week. After that, we just have 262 days until the 2025 Masters. 

Returning to Royal Troon this week for the first time since 2016, we have to mention the iconic duel between Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson. These two ran away from the field with Mickelson’s 17-under tally being 11 shots clear of the third-place finisher. It’s likely the best major performance ever to not result in a win.

What stood out in 2016 was the weather draw as there was a small pocket of great weather that allowed Stenson and Mickelson to separate from the pack and they never looked back. 

We will take a look at the weather this week but first let’s have a quick rundown of the course. 

One thing we’ll hear so often this week is the soft handshake you are greeted with at Troon. In 2016, the first seven holes yielded 667 birdies (563 bogeys or worse) for the week while the final 11 yielded just 590 birdies (1,339 bogeys or worse). This adds some mental pressure into the equation too because golfers feel like they need to go deep into red numbers before making the turn. 

Off the tee, this course is similar to so many Open Championship courses. The goal is to avoid fairways bunkers and the thick stuff. Sometimes that means you need to lay back with less than driver. As Bryson DeChambeau put it, “I don't think it's possible to overpower it. There's too many hazards around the fairways, even in the bunkers. You've got to be very strategic out here.” 

From there, you must attack small greens while avoiding the greenside bunkers at all costs. In 2016, the overall scrambling rate when missing the green was 52% but that plummeted to 38% when finding a greenside bunker. Roughly 18% of missed greens ended up in the sand so most golfers will land there once or twice per round. The golfers who are in contention are probably hitting into zero or one per round. 

Lastly, we have slow greens that many Americans often struggle to adapt to. A warmup last week at the Scottish likely helps a little. Let’s see what some of the pros are saying about Troon early in the week. 

Quotes

Scottie Scheffler on the Scottish elements: “I think the biggest adjustment is how much the ball spins off the turf here. It spins a bit more than it does at home. When you're playing shots into the wind, it will typically have much more of an effect on what the golf ball does than what we're used to. Getting used to the heavier air and the spinnier turf.”

Scottie Scheffler on driver usage: “It all depends on the wind. Today we got downwind on a lot of holes on the front nine. You could hit drivers if you wanted to and could hit irons if you wanted to as well. A lot of it is game-time decision based on the wind, but most of the back nine I'm going to be hitting driver because the holes are significantly longer and are supposed to be playing like slightly into the wind.”

Rory McIlroy on the wind this week: “The forecast looks like it's going to be basically straight off the right going out and straight off the left coming in, so quite a few more crosswinds, which presents its own challenges in a way.” 

Bryson DeChambeau on Royal Troon: “I don't think it's possible to overpower it. There's too many hazards around the fairways, even in the bunkers. You've got to be very strategic out here.”

Quote Summary: So much of how the course plays this week will be determined by what Mother Nature has in store. Overall, golfers talk of Troon being a strategic test that requires a good game plan and the ability to match up speed on the greens that are slower than they see on a week-to-week basis. 

Correlated Courses

The Open is always a unique test and for that reason, I don’t want to overcomplicate the correlated course section. Instead, let’s look at the last five years at The Open as well as The Renaissance Club, another coastal course in Scotland. 

The five names that show the largest boost over their baseline on these courses are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Tommy Fleetwood, Louis Oosthuizen, and Rory McIlroy. 

What about weather this week? 

Thursday (Round 1): Overcast with a chance of showers and a high of 62 degrees. Winds at 8 to 13 MPH, gusts up to 31 MPH. 

Friday (Round 2): Partly sunny with a high of 65 degrees. Winds at 5 to 10 MPH, gusts up to 27 MPH. 

Saturday (Round 3): Overcast with a chance of showers and a high of 61 degrees. Winds at 6 to 9 MPH, gusts up to 23 MPH. 

Sunday (Round 4): Overcast with a high of 62 degrees. Winds at 7 to 11 MPH, gusts up to 26 MPH. 

This falls in line with what you’d expect to see at The Open. We have cool temps and plenty of pockets of wind to spice things up. 

Tiers

In this section, I am going to open the Splash Sports app and give my initial reactions to seeing each tier for the first time. 

Tier 1: On paper, this is where you click Scheffler, McIlroy, or Schauffele but if there were one major to go “off the board” in Tier 1, this would be it. Someone like Fleetwood or Rahm might fit that bill. 

Tier 2: Finau and Hatton have the best links pedigree of this bunch but Joaquin Niemann has been one of the best in the world over the last year. Similar to what we saw last week from Justin Thomas, he’s put together some really good rounds at The Open but yet to do it for the entire week. He’s still searching for his first top 10 at The Open. 

Tier 3: Young Bhatia has been a menace in windy conditions while Aaron Rai arrives in the best form of his career. Tom Kim has a game that sets up somewhat similar to the most recent winner at Troon (Henrik Stenson). Brian Harman is the defending champ so we shouldn’t count him out while Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, and Sam Burns are all proven winners with lots of big-finish equity. 

Tier 4: None of these names are really popping off the page but you could make the case for all of them. Cam Young has top 10s in each of his first two tries at The Open. Sepp Straka and Max Homa also bagged top 10s last year at Royal Liverpool. 

Tier 5: With Spieth, Koepka, Day, and Scott all here, this might be Tier 1 if we traveled back to 2015. Add in Cam Smith to the mix, and I think you’ll want to side with one of those five names, each with a proven major championship resume. 

Tier 6: Could Bobby MacIntyre go back-to-back in his home country? Or is another youngster like Ryo Hisatsune, Tom McKibbin, or one of the Hojgaard brothers ready to break out? Remember with links golf, we see a higher rate of veterans poking their head into contention so if you are a hardcore Tiger or Phil fan, this might be an okay spot to actually use them. They are still incredible longshots at this stage of their careers, though.  

I hope these initial gut reactions will help you narrow down your search. To compete for big cash prizes at this year's Open, join the RickRunGood Open Championship Tiers challenge. $25K is guaranteed to be paid out between the top 200 finishers, plus, there's an additional $100K prize if you can pick the best golfer in all six tiers. If you're up for the challenge, join here.

One & Done Strategy

Turning our attention toward the Splash Sports One & Done contests, another major championship presents a chance to utilize the LIV golfers if you can. They are only One & Done options four times a year, so it can be a good idea to cash in while you can and save your big name Tour stars for the remaining regular season or playoff events. 

I think this is a sneaky-good spot to trot out Jon Rahm as he is a bit under the radar, going winless since joining LIV Golf. 

Bryson DeChambeau is not the first name I think of when it comes to links golf but he’s playing so good right now. Tyrrell Hatton on the other hand is a links guru so that could be another name to consider this week. Others I’d consider would be Brooks Koepka, Cam Smith, or Joaquin Niemann. With so many viable LIV options with big top-5 upside, I want to stick with this strategy. 

Of course, names like Scheffler, McIlroy, Schauffele, Morikawa, and Fleetwood are all appealing, as well, if you don’t want to travel down the LIV path this week.  

Good luck in all your contests this week.

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Josh Culp is a seasoned fantasy golf analyst with over a decade of experience in the field. His passion for statistics helps navigate the complexities of fantasy golf while separating the signal from the noise. Formerly on Rotoworld, NBC Sports, and Golf Channel, you can follow him @futureoffantasy on X (formerly known as Twitter).